Singapore REITs Monthly Update (10 Nov, 2023)

Happy Deepavali!

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 646.46 to 641.39 (-0.78%) compared to last month's update. The REIT index hit the resistance zone at about 660 level after rebounding from 613 level.  Technically the REIT index is still in bearish territory.

• Short-term direction: Down 
• Medium-term direction: Down
• Long-term direction: Down
• Immediate Support at 600-613 zone (Mar 2020 low)
• Immediate Resistance at about 660 (horizontal support turned resistance and 50D SMA
  
  

FTSE REIT Index Chart

The previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on October 8th, 2023.

The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

• The Financial Ratios are based on past data and these are lagging indicators.
• All REITs except Cromwell European REIT have the latest Q3 2023 update values.
• I have introduced weighted average (weighted by market cap) to the financial ratios, in addition to the existing simple average ratios. This is another perspective where smaller market cap REITs do not disproportionately affect the average ratios.

Data from REITsavvy Screener. https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

What does each Column mean?

• FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.

• Yield (TTM): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of November 10th, 2023.
• Notes: ESR-LOGOS REIT and Paragon REIT: Annualised yield, after taking into account the switch to semi-annual distribution declaration. For Paragon REIT: calculated after converting from 13 months of distribution to 12 months.
• Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
• Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price over Net Asset Value per Unit.
• Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (TTM) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs trading in USD is referenced to US Gov Bond Yield, everything else is referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

• Price/NAV remained at 0.71. (Weighted Average: 0.71)
  • Remained from 0.71 in October 2023.
  • Singapore's Overall REIT sector is very undervalued now.
  • Take note that NAV is adjusted upwards for some REITs due to pandemic recovery.
    
    
• Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)

• Only 5 REITs are overvalued now based on Price/NAV value.
• No change in the Top 2 in the last 6 months.
  
  
• Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)

Distribution Yields Overview

• TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 9.57%. (Weighted Average is 6.68%)    
  • Decreased from 10.44% in October 2023 (Weighted Average was 6.92%)
  • 20 of 38 Singapore REITs have distribution yields of above 7%.
  • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery.
  • 11 REITs have a TTM yield of over 10%!
• Highest Distribution Yield REITs (TTM)

• A reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices. This has caused Manulife US REIT and Prime US REIT's TTM yields to be over 25%.
• Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
• A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.

• Yield Spread tightened to 6.24%. (Weighted Average remains similar at 4.40%) 
  • Tightened from 6.79% in October 2023. (Weighted Average was 4.36%)

Gearing Ratios Overview

• Gearing Ratio increased to 38.08%. (Weighted Average: 38.34%)    
  • Increased from 37.95% in October 2023. (Weighted Average: 38.26%)  
  • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly. All REITs have updated their Gearing Ratios with Q2 results.
  • S-REITs Gearing Ratio has been on a steady uptrend. It was 35.55% in Q4 2019.
    
    
• Highest Gearing Ratio REITs

Market Capitalisation Overview

• Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation decreased by 0.67% to S$85.99 Billion.
  • Decreased from S$86.57 Billion in October 2023.
    
    
• Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):

• MPACT and MLT swapped places, after no change in the rankings since September 2022.
  
  
• Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decisions. If you want to know more about investing in REITs, here's a subsidised 2-day course with all you need to know about REITs and how to start investing in them.

Top 20 Worst Performers of October 2023

Source: https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

SG 10-Year & US 10-Year Government Bond Yield

• SG 10 Year: 3.13% (increased from 3.47%)
• US 10 Year: 4.66% (increased from 4.80%)

Summary

The past month has been an average month for S-REITs, after 2 bearish months and mass selling in the REIT Sectors due to the spike in 10 years of government bond yield and yield spread compression. However, fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs landscape remains extremely undervalued based on the average Price/NAV (at 0.71) value of the S-REITs, with still a very attractive DPU yield of 9.57%! (Weighted average yield of 6.68%). Do take note that NAV and DPU are lagging numbers.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Weighted Average Yield spread (in reference to the 10-year Singapore government bond yield of 3.13% as of 10th November 2023) narrowed slightly from 4.36% to 4.40%. The Fed Rate has however adjusted its forecast upwards, expecting to keep its Fed Rate high (5.25% to 5.50% band) for longer until Q2, 2024.

Technically, the FTSE ST REIT Index has broken the Oct 2022's support and heading towards the next support level at about 600 (Mar 2020's low). The current sentiment in the S-REIT sector is bearish and oversold.

Kenny Loh is a Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk-adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also an invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement