Singapore REITs Monthly Update (04 May 2024)

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 666.29 to 632.65 (5.04%) compared to last month's update. The REIT index is now trading in a downward parallel channel, breaking the 20D SMA support again (now turned resistance). The new support is now the bottom line of the parallel channel, followed by the 591 support (low during the March 2020 crash).

FTSE REIT Index Chart (1.5 years time period)

FTSE REIT Index Chart (5 years time period)

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REITs Monthly Update on April 07, 2024.

Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

• The Financial Ratios are based on past data and these are lagging indicators.
• REITs with yellow highlights have the latest Q1 2024 values, other REITs have Q4 2023 update values.
• I have introduced weighted average (weighted by market cap) to the financial ratios, in addition to the existing simple average ratios. This is another perspective where smaller market cap REITs do not disproportionately affect the average ratios.

Data from REITsavvy Screener. https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

What does each Column mean?

• FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.
• Yield (TTM): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of April 5th, 2024.
• Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
• Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price over Net Asset Value per Unit.
• Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (ttm) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs are referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.

• As of May 2024, all REITs' Yield Spread will be referenced to SG Gov Bond Yields, regardless of trading currency.

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

• Price/NAV decreased to 0.78 (Weighted Average: 0.78)
  • Decreased from 0.80 in April 2024.
  • Singapore's Overall REIT sector is undervalued now.
  • Price/NAV increased due to NAV trending downwards from the latest Q4 2023 update.
    
    
• Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)

• Only 5 REITs are overvalued now based on Price/NAV value.
• EC World REIT has its NAV/Unit dropped from 0.75 to 0.12 as of the latest update. This caused its Price/NAV to skyrocket to 2.33. Also, it is currently suspended.
  
  
• Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)

Distribution Yields Overview

• TTM Distribution Yield increased to 8.07%. (Weighted Average increased to 6.63%)    
  • Increased from 7.75% in April 2024 (Weighted Average was 6.32%)
  • 21 of 38 Singapore REITs have TTM distribution yields of above 7%.
  • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery.
  • 10 REITs have a TTM yield of over 10%!
    
    
• Highest Distribution Yield REITs (TTM)

• A reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices. 
• Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
• A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.

• Yield Spread tightened to 4.38%. (Weighted Average remained almost the same at 3.93%)   
  
  • Widened from 4.38% in April 2024. (Weighted Average was 3.90%)
  • From May 2024 onwards, all yield spread measurements are now in relation to SG Gov Bond Yields, no longer a mix with US Gov Bond Yields

Gearing Ratios Overview

• Gearing Ratio increased to 39.12%. (Weighted Average: 38.13%)
  
  • Increased from 38.76% in April 2024. (Weighted Average: 37.90%)
  • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly.
  • S-REITs Gearing Ratio has been on a steady uptrend. It was 35.55% in Q4 2019.

• Highest Gearing Ratio REITs

• MUST and EC World REIT's gearing ratio has exceeded MAS's gearing limit of 50%. However, the aggregate leverage limit is not considered to be breached if exceeding the limit is due to circumstances beyond the control of the REIT Manager.

Market Capitalisation Overview

• Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation decreased by 4.91% to S$84.84 Billion.
  • Decreased from S$89.22 Billion in April 2024.
    
    
• Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$ Million):

• There have been no changes in the rankings since November 2022.
  
  
• Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$ Million):

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decisions. 

Top 20 Best Performers of April 2024

Source: https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

SG 10-Year & US 10-Year Government Bond Yield

• SG 10 Year: 3.39% (increased from 3.22%)

Summary

The drop continues for S-REITs, approaching the low of 613 last reached in late 2023 (support). Fundamentally, the whole Singapore REITs landscape remains undervalued based on the average Price/NAV (at 0.78) value of the S-REITs, with still a very attractive DPU yield of 8.07%! (Weighted average yield of 6.67%). Do take note that NAV and DPU are lagging numbers.

Weighted Average Yield spread (in reference to the 10-year Singapore government bond yield of 3/39% as of May 3rd 2024) remained almost the same from 3.90% to 3.93%. Based on the CME group's interest rate futures, there will still be a high possibility of a rate cut of between 100-150 bps by the end of 2024.

Trends and Predictions for Singapore REITs 2024

Join us for an enlightening webinar where we delve into the intricate world of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Singapore against the backdrop of interest rate movements. Kenny Loh, a Singapore REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor, will meticulously analyse current market trends and offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead for S-REITs in 2024.

Key Topics Covered:

• Impact of Interest Rate Movements on Singapore REITs Performance
• Navigating Interest Rate Fluctuations
• Identifying Emerging Risks and Seizing Opportunities in REITs Sector
• Actionable Insights for Portfolio Positioning
• Strategic Success Amidst Interest Rate Scenarios

Kenny Loh is a Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk-adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also an invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement-related news. https://t.me/REITirement